Nvidia Lifts Semis, But Bursa Faces Merdeka-Week Profit-Taking

Nvidia carried the tape. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.57% to 26,541 and the PHLX Semiconductor Index jumped 2.33% to 11,882 after Nvidia's revenue forecast eased AI-growth concerns. The S&P 500 added 0.72% to 7,731, but the Dow managed only +0.20% and the Russell +0.28% — the breadth was thin. Technology was the sole winning sector ETF at +3.16%; every other group fell, led lower by Consumer Staples (-1.38%), Health Care (-1.13%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.09%) and Communication Services (-1.07%). Financials slipped 0.65%. This was a concentrated melt-up in one theme rather than a market-wide advance — ten of eleven sectors red while the index prints green tells you where conviction and where doubt sit. Attention now turns to a Fed's Warsh speech flagged across the wires.

Crude is going nowhere and palm oil is weak — a poor combination for Malaysia's two commodity anchors. WTI closed effectively flat at $83.51 (-0.02%), though a KLSE headline notes oil rising 2% intraday as Trump rejected Iran terms — the geopolitics keep a floor under Petronas-linked revenue. Brent at $89.70 is stale. Gold eased 0.30% to $4,650 and silver -0.38%, with scarcity-hedge demand still cited. Copper barely moved (-0.05% at 6.6855). The concern is plantations: palm oil continues to fall on weak export demand, which pressures Sime Darby (SIMEPLT) and the CPO complex even as a softer ringgit cushions receipts.

The ringgit is the story: USD/MYR firmed 0.20% to 4.0300, weaker ahead of the Fed, which mechanically helps exporters and hurts foreign-funded flows into Bursa. US yields sat still — the 10y flat at 4.668%, the 5y -0.11% at 4.391%, the 30y +0.02% at 5.192%, and the 3m up to 3.78%. The curve is positively sloped at +0.89pt (10y-3m), no inversion signal. DXY was flat at 99.11 despite a WSJ note that the seven-year auction cleared near a two-year high yield. For Bursa, a soft ringgit plus stable US duration is a benign backdrop for the banks' NIM narrative but a headwind for foreign inflows.

The clearest cross-asset message is that this is a risk-on tape with a very narrow base — and that has direct consequences for how you position at the open. VIX at 14.51 (-4.6%) and HY credit essentially flat (-0.04%, in line with IG at -0.05%) confirm no stress in the plumbing; the score's 85.9 volatility component is doing the heavy lifting. But breadth at 42.2 and only one US sector higher say the bid is concentrated in semis. The copper/gold ratio at 14.38 tracks the 10y at 4.67% — both flat — so the macro growth-versus-fear vote is neutral, not confirming a broad reflation. That combination argues for a stock-specific, not index-wide, response on Bursa: the E&E and semiconductor names (Inari) can import the SOX +2.33% enthusiasm, while the rest of the board follows the local profit-taking flagged by The Star. The soft ringgit at 4.03 reinforces the same split — good for exporters, a drag on foreign-funded blue chips. Trade the leadership, not the tape.

Local sentiment is defensive despite the offshore tech rally. The Star reports profit-taking dragged the FBM KLCI lower amid earnings season, and KLCI Futures ended lower — the local tape is not simply importing Wall Street's mood. The ringgit ended weaker against the dollar on caution ahead of the Fed. On earnings: Hong Leong Bank (HLBANK) posted 6% year-on-year growth in profit after tax, a solid but unspectacular print for the banking complex. Petronas Gas climbed 1.14% despite softer 1H profit. Petronas Dagangan (PETDAG) flagged remediation over BNM findings at Setel. Bernama notes potential pre-Merdeka buying interest, while Focus Malaysia earlier saw YTL and banking counters lift the market. Bank of the incremental positive earnings versus a cautious index.

Expect a split open: a firmer bid on E&E and semiconductor names against a heavy, profit-taking undertow elsewhere. The SOX +2.33% and Nvidia's forecast give Inari Amertron (INARI, RM2.50) and the broader E&E complex a clear reason to open bid, amplified by the softer ringgit at 4.03 that lifts export receipts. Banks are mixed-to-constructive after HLBANK's +6% PAT — watch Maybank (RM10.62), CIMB (RM8.07) and Public Bank (RM5.00) for follow-through, though US Financials fell 0.65% overnight. Against this, The Star's profit-taking theme and lower KLCI futures cap the index; the KLCI is stale at 1,741.72, so treat local levels with care. O&G is neutral — crude flat but Petronas Gas showed relative strength. Plantations stay soft on weak palm export demand. The Merdeka-week seasonal buying angle is a wildcard. Net: rotate toward exporters with an offshore catalyst, fade broad index chasing.

The dominant scheduled event is a speech by Fed's Warsh, flagged across multiple US wires and driving the pre-Fed-meeting caution in the ringgit. Australia's hot inflation print has triggered fresh rate bets regionally. Malaysian corporate earnings season is live and actively driving the profit-taking. No specific Malaysian data release is evident in the headlines — treat the local macro calendar as light behind the Fed watch.

The view breaks if the narrow leadership fails to hold. If Nvidia's halo fades in Asian trade and semis give back the SOX gain, the E&E long loses its catalyst and only the local profit-taking remains. A sharper ringgit move — a break beyond 4.03 in either direction — would flip the exporter-versus-inflows calculus. A hawkish Warsh speech could lift US yields off the flat 10y at 4.67% and pressure foreign flows into Bursa. And the stale KLCI print means any level-based read is provisional until the cash open confirms.